TWINS runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations to model who might advance through California's top-two primary for Governor in 2026.
How it works: We start with real polling data, layer in campaign finance, and add randomness to reflect the inherent uncertainty of elections. Each simulation produces a different possible outcome. Run enough of them and patterns emerge.
Use the controls on the left to adjust the electorate, add your own polls, tweak campaign spending, and dial the chaos up or down. If you're really crazy you can add the betting markets (which default to 0% impact). Then hit the big gold button and see what happens.
This is a modeling tool built for fun and curiosity, not a crystal ball. Please do not mortgage your house based on anything you see here. The future is unwritten, campaigns matter, and models are only as good as their assumptions.